At Least 70% Chance Of El Nino In June
On Tuesday the Australian Bureau of Methodology (BOM) said that the country should brace itself for an El Nino this year. According to BOM there is at least a 70% chance that El Nino weather patterns will be witnessed as early as June.
The warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific as well as El Nino can result into drought in Australia and Southeast Asia and heavy rains in South America, as a result there will be a shortage of foods such as sugar, rice and wheat due to the fact that their production will be interfered with.
"The chances of El Nino occurring in 2015 have increased," the bureau said. "Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific continue to be warmer than average, trade winds remain weaker than normal, and all models surveyed suggest further ocean warming will occur," it added.
The Australian Bureau of Methodology went on further to state that the current temperatures for Tropical Pacific Ocean are just shy of the El Nino levels.
In an event that the El Nino indeed emerges, Eastern Australia is expected to receive below average late spring and winter rainfall. In addition to that the southern half of Australia will also receive daytime temperatures which are above average.
Such change in temperature as well as rainfall will end up hurting wheat crop in Australia which is the fourth biggest exporter of wheat in the world.
For the 2015/16 season which is set to begin July 1st it is estimated that wheat production will total up to 24.39 million tones, the chief of commodity forecaster in Australia said earlier this month. If indeed it happens that will represent a 3% increase from the figure of 23.61 million tones which was recorded this year.